Saxo Bank's 10 Outrageous Predictions for 2016

Copenhagen, Denmark (ots/PRNewswire) - Could the euro, Brazil and oil
be the unlikely winners of the year?

Saxo Bank, the online multi-asset trading and investment specialist,
has today released its annual set of 'Outrageous Predictions' for the
year ahead. These are 10 unlikely, yet perhaps underappreciated,
events that could have significant consequences on the financial
landscape as we venture into 2016.

As ever, the predictions span the length and breadth of markets and
geographies; ranging from oil making a drastic return to $100 a
barrel to Silicon Valley's much vaunted unicorns returning to myth.
Other claims include the Russian rouble rising 20% versus the US
dollar/euro basket, the Olympics turbo-charging a Brazilian recovery
and a meltdown in corporate bonds.

Steen Jakobsen, Chief Economist at Saxo Bank, commented: "We are
nearing the end of the paradigm paralysis that has dominated the
policy response to the global financial crisis. Quantitative easing
and other forms of intervention have failed. China is transitioning,
and geopolitical tensions are as complex as ever. The marginal cost
of money is rising, and so is volatility and uncertainty. It is
against this backdrop we have set this year's predictions."

"Saxo Bank's Outrageous Predictions remain an exercise in finding ten
relatively controversial and unrelated ideas which could turn your
investment world upside down. It is rewarding to see how the
Outrageous Predictions catch our clients' imagination and fuel
ongoing debate; it is this process of discussion and anti-herd
thinking that is at the heart of Saxo's now established tradition of
attempting to draw attention to the unfathomable" Steen Jakobsen
added.

Please see below for Saxo Bank's Outrageous Predictions 2016

1. EURUSD direction? It's 1.23...

Europe is running a massive current account surplus and its weaker
inflation should, in macroeconomic logic, mean a stronger currency,
not a weaker one. The race to the bottom has gone full circle,
meaning we are back to a weaker US dollar again as the direct outcome
of US interest rates policy.

2. Russia's rouble rises 20% by end-2016

By the end of 2016, a surge in oil demand and the Fed raising rates
at an inappropriately slow pace causes the Russian rouble to rise
some 20% versus the US dollar/euro basket in 2016.

3. Silicon Valley's unicorns brought back down to earth

2016 will resemble 2000 in Silicon Valley with more startups delaying
monetisation and tangible business models in exchange for adding
users and trying to achieve critical mass.

4. Olympics to turbo-charge EM's Brazil-led recovery

Stabilisation, investment spending on the Olympics, and modest
reforms will see sentiment rebound in Brazil, with EM exports helped
by cheaper local currencies. The result: EM equities to have a great
year - outperforming bonds and other equities.

5. Democrats retain presidency, retake Congress in 2016 landslide

The Republican Party goes from strength to dramatic weakness as the
rifts from an internal struggle on its future direction play out.
This leads to a landslide victory for the Democratic Party as they
successfully execute a get-out-the-vote campaign with Millennials
coming out in droves having been frustrated by the political
stalemate and weak job prospects of the last eight years.

6. OPEC turmoil triggers brief return to $100/b oil

OPEC's crude oil basket price drops to the lowest since 2009 and
unease among weaker as well as wealthier members of the cartel over
the supply-and-rule strategy continues to grow. The long awaited sign
of an accelerated slowdown in non-OPEC production finally begins to
flicker. Suitably buoyed, OPEC catches the market on the hop with a
downward adjustment in output. The price mounts a quick recovery with
investors scrambling to re-enter the market to the long side - once
again bringing $100/barrel prices onto the horizon.

7. Silver breaks golden shackles to rally 33%

2016 will see a renewed confidence in silver. The political drive
towards reducing carbon dioxide emissions by supporting renewable
energy will add to increased industrial demand for the metal, given
its use in solar cells. As such, silver will rally by a third,
leaving other metals behind.

8. Aggressive Fed sees meltdown in global corporate bonds

Late 2016 will see Fed chief Janet Yellen embark down a hawkish path
with a series of aggressive rate hikes, triggering a huge selloff in
all major bond markets as yields start to rise. As the portions of
bank and broker balance sheets allotted to bond trading and market
making have almost disappeared, one of the vital parts of a
functioning market is simply not there. This realisation sinks in too
late and the entire buy-side flee into a panic selling one-way
street, as highly advanced risk models lurch into a symmetric red
alert.

9. El Niño sparks inflation surge

Next year's El Niño will be the strongest on record and will cause
moisture deficits in many areas of southeast Asia and droughts in
Australia. Lower yields across agricultural commodities will curb
supply at a time when demand is still increasing on the back of
global economic expansion. The outcome will be a 40% surge in the
Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index, adding some much-needed
inflationary pressure.

10. Inequality has last laugh on luxury

Faced with rising inequality and unemployment of over 10%, Europe is
considering the introduction of a basic universal income to ensure
that all citizens can afford to meet their basic needs. In a more
egalitarian society where other values are promoted, demand for
luxury goods decreases sharply - the sector collapses.

To join to the conversation and for updated insights, don't forget to
follow Trading Floor (https://twitter.com/TradingFloorcom) and Saxo
Bank (https://twitter.com/saxobank?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5E
serp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor).

The whole publication "Outrageous Predictions for 2016" can be found
here: http://www.saxobank.com/campaigns/outrageous/

About Saxo Bank

The Saxo Bank Group (Saxo)
(http://www.saxobank.com?cmpid=press-release-FP) is an online
multi-asset trading and investment specialist, offering a complete
set of trading and investment technologies, tools and strategies.

A fully licensed and regulated bank, Saxo enables private and
institutional clients to easily trade multiple assets from a single
margin account on multiple devices seamlessly.

Saxo's award winning trading technology platforms
(http://www.saxobank.com/platform?cmpid=press-release-platform) are
available in more than 20 languages and form the technology backbone
of more than 100 financial institutions worldwide.

Saxo also offers traditional banking services through Saxo Privatbank
in select markets.

Founded in 1992
(http://www.saxobank.com/about/?cmpid=press-release-about) and
headquartered in Copenhagen, Saxo employs 1500 people in 25 offices
across the five continents.

ORIGINAL APA-OTS TEXT - THE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS PRESS RELEASE IS SUBJECT TO THE EXCLUSIVE RESPONSIBILITY OF THE ISSUER | PRN

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