euro adhoc: BP PLC / Trading Statement (E)

Disclosure announcement transmitted by euro adhoc. The issuer is responsible for the content of this announcement.

January 14, 2003


This trading update is aimed at providing an overview of the revenue and trading conditions experienced by BP during the fourth quarter ending December 31, 2002.

The fourth quarter volume, realisations, margin, demand, debt, tax rate and other data referred to below are currently provisional, some being drawn from figures applicable to the first month or so of the quarter. All such data are subject to change and may differ quite considerably from the final numbers that will be reported on February 11, 2003. The statement is produced in order to provide greater disclosure to investors and potential investors of some currently expected outcomes primarily related to revenue, and to ensure that they all receive equal access to the same information at the same time.

· Liquids realisations are expected to be broadly in line with last quarter. US gas realisations are expected to rise
slightly ahead of the change in Henry Hub marker price.

· The overall refining and marketing trading environment deteriorated relative to 3Q.

· The chemicals indicator margin is expected to weaken against 3Q levels as prices lagged the rise in feedstock costs. Demand remains sluggish.

Exploration and Production

Hydrocarbon production, as indicated at the time of our 3Q results, is expected to be up about 3% and 1.5% for the full year and 4Q respectively compared with last year.

4Q'02 3Q'02 4Q'01

Brent dated ($/bbl) 26.88 26.91 19.41

WTI ($/bbl) 28.31 28.26 20.31

ANS USWC ($/bbl) 26.86 27.26 17.79

Gas Henry Hub first of
month index ($/mmbtu) 3.99 3.16 2.43

UK gas price - National
Balancing Point (p/therm)19.09 12.74 22.32

Gas, Power and Renewables

North American NGL margins are expected to be slightly lower than 3Q. Our interest in Ruhrgas was sold in 3Q and therefore no contribution from Ruhrgas will appear in 4Q.

Refining and Marketing

4Q 3Q 2002 4Q 2001

Refining Global Indicator Margin* ($/bbl.)

NWE 2.19 1.28 1.53

US Gulf Coast 2.98 1.82 1.79

US Midwest 4.09 3.27 2.63

US West Coast 3.95 3.54 6.25

Singapore 1.41 0.47 1.20

Global Indicator Margin (GIM) 2.76 1.98 2.40

*The refining Global Indicator Margin is a weighted average based on BP's portfolio. Actual Margins may vary because of refinery configuration, crude slate and operating practices.

The 4Q'02 Refining GIM is estimated to be higher than 3Q'02. However, realised margins are expected to be lower than that implied by the GIM, due to the actual crude slate used by our refinery system, and a compression of margins for products not included in the GIM calculation.

4Q'02 retail margins are expected to be down from 3Q'02 due to seasonal declines compounded by significant crude price increases at year end.


Weighted Chemicals Indicator Margin* ($/te)

4Q'02 3Q'02 2Q'02 4Q'01

N/a 115 109 112

*The Chemicals Indicator Margin is a weighted average of externally-based product margins. It is based on market data collected by Chem Systems in their quarterly market analyses, then weighted on BP's product portfolio. This is described more fully in the Group's quarterly results releases.

Chemicals margins in 4Q'02 are expected to be weaker than the prior quarter as product prices were unable to compensate for significantly higher feedstock and utility costs. Petrochemicals demand remains sluggish across all regions.

Debt/Balance Sheet

The Group's net debt gearing ratio on a proforma basis at quarter-end is expected to be around 28-29%, in line with the 3Q level of 28.7%.


The Group's effective tax rate for the fourth quarter on the pro forma result adjusted for special items is expected to be around 33-34%, compared with 34.5% in the third quarter.

- ENDS -

This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange

Further inquiry note:
BP Press Office, +44(0)207 496 4624
Tel: +44 20 7496 4000

end of announcement euro adhoc

Emittent: BP PLC
Tel: +44 20 7496 4000
ISIN: GB0007980591
WKN: 850517
Börsen: free trade Baden-Württembergische Wertpapierbörse, Bayerische Börse, Berliner Wertpapierbörse, Niedersächsische Börse zu Hannover; official dealing Börse Düsseldorf, Frankfurter Wertpapierbörse, Hamburger Wertpapierbörse, London Stock Exchange, SWX Swiss Exchange
Branche: Energy
Sprache: Englisch